Roth Conversions: Any Good Reason?

I think they make much more sense for lower income folks.  If your income is below the standard deduction, do a partial Roth conversion and still pay $0 tax (although at that point I'd probably use the 10% bracket too).  If the balance in the client's IRA is large enough that RMDs are going to make SS taxable, you can do Roth conversions in their 50s & 60s to get the income out of a taxable IRA and keep the SS income taxed at 0%.

But you're absolutely right, mathematically you're just playing "guess the tax rate."

I've read articles about the psychological aspects (not sure how much I buy into them).  In your example the taxes were paid out of the Roth at conversion ($1,000 becomes $800), but this also becomes an opportunity to "invest" the other $200 from outside funds so it becomes a forced savings (I guess psychologically most folks instead of saving the money would just spend it on hookers and blow?)  And on top of that, the forced savings grows with 0% tax in the Roth.  At least until Congress decides they want to start taxing Roth earnings. 🙂

You are missing the time value of the increase (hopefully) over remaining time. A 5 year analysis is only the start. If you are close to RMD age, then you have a different analysis than someone who is 30 or 40 or 60.

If you intend to leave the funds to someone, they avoid RMD with the conversions.

Also, available funds to pay the taxes would be helpful. I have been doing this for about 5 years, and have 7 more years I intend to convert. Then, there still should be another 7 years or so before I might need to use those funds. This is a great time to convert if you have Basis in the traditional, as well.

Let's review:

If you listen to Dave Ramsey, he clearly explains how the Roth growth as tax free (at least for now) beats tax deferred growth starting when you are young, setting aside matching considerations for 401(k)/Traditional. It's another "rock, paper, scissors" formula:

Match beats Roth beats regular investments

That means younger people should be putting into Roth whenever possible instead of going for deferral, but leveraging for match first. Once you find yourself forced by "best option" into a deferred account, your next step is to make conversions as quickly as you can afford to, so that the growth is then tax free. Basis (backdoor) Traditional should always be converted right away, of course. One thing Dave Ramsey overlooks is if the person is doing a backdoor Roth and also has Basis from other activities.

Under typical projected scenarios, you will double your funds every 7-10 years, depending on the variables, of course.

Example: You start with $1,000 in Traditional IRA. You convert and pay for that tax with regular funds, so that the full $1,000 still gets invested through the Roth. Given that projection of 7 years = $2,000, you only paid the taxes in your example of $200 and if you are in your 30s or 40s, then by the time you get to 72 (thank you, Congress), you paid $200 and you end up with around $16,000. And now none of that is taxable or has to be withdrawn at all.  And it won't count against income for IRMAA, if you do start using it.

You wouldn't pay the taxes from the distribution/conversion unless you are over 59 1/2. It's better to pay from cash on hand. You sure don't want to incur the 10% early withdrawal penalty. And that means not expecting to also pull funds from the deferred account in the next few years, because otherwise, why convert? There isn't a lot of headspace for growth, that late in the game.

As for fees, it really depends. We work self-directed for all accounts. If you use a fee broker, you likely use them for any account type, so there is no difference to their fee.

Roth 401(k) has RMD. That's why you would transfer this to Roth.